I’m often asked for an ex-post review of my prognostications. I can’t disagree because, after all, it would be rather disingenuous to provide forecasts without any degree of back testing. So how accurate was I in 2011? Where did I get it wrong? We’ll see below.
Demography is a critical driver of real estate demand. Population growth in the world rapidly accelerated in the 20th century and is still increasing. While the growth may be leveling off in some industrialized countries, it is still robust in most countries.
The U.S. economy expanded less than forecast in the fourth quarter as consumers curbed spending and government agencies cut back. Real GDP climbed 2.8 percent on an annual rate, up from 1.8 percent in the third quarter.