In December 2009, the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS jumped to $41.64 billion from $37.93 billion a month prior, according to Horsham, Pa.-based Realpoint LLC. It was the second straight month when the unpaid balance jumped by more than $3.7 billion.
Overall, the delinquent unpaid balance is up 380 percent from a year ago and is now more than 18 times the low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007. Realpoint noted an increase in four of the five delinquent loan categories in December, while the distressed 90+-day, foreclosure and REO categories grew in aggregate for the 24th straight month. The total unpaid balance for CMBS pools reviewed by Realpoint for the November 2009 remittance was $797.18 billion, down from $806.1 billion in October.
The delinquency ratio for December 2009 of 5.22 percent (up from the 4.71 percent reported for November) is more than five times the 1.025 percent reported in December 2008 and 18 times the Realpoint recorded low point of 0.28 percent in June 2007.
Overall, Realpoint projects the delinquent unpaid CMBS balance to continue along its current trend and grow to between $50 and $60 billion by mid 2010. The firm also projects the delinquency percentage to grow to between 6 percent and 7 percent through the first quarter of 2010 and potentially surpass 8 percent to 9 percent under more heavily stressed scenarios.
By property type, in December 2009, retail loans moved past multifamily loans as the greatest contributor to overall CMBS delinquency, at 1.35 percent of the CMBS universe and 25.8 percent of total delinquency. The retail default rate grew slightly to 4.84 percent in December 2009 from 4.49% a month prior, up substantially from only 1.1percent one-year ago. Realpoint expects retail delinquencies to continue to increase throughout 2010.