THE RENEWAL BOMB

In the go-go days of 2000, many high-flying dot-com firms signed three-year leases. Now, it's rollover time. Of the 37 office markets CoStar Group tracked rent comparisons for over that three-year period, Austin, Texas, has suffered the highest drop in quoted rental rates, raising its lease rollover risk significantly. By comparison, Seattle's exposure is more moderate.

Top 10 markets with potential lease rollover risk
Quoted Rental Rate Vacancy Rate
Market 1Q 2000 4Q 2002 Percent Decrease 1Q 2000 4Q 2002 Percent Increase
Austin* $26.30 $20.14 23.42% 7.2% 18.9% 162.5%
San Francisco $36.44 $29.27 19.68% 7.0 16.1 130%
Denver $20.89 $18.71 10.44% 10.8 18.4 70.37%
Boston $27.99 $25.18 10.04% 8.7 14.0 60.92%
Dallas/Fort Worth $20.67 $18.61 9.97% 17.2 21.1 22.67%
Indianapolis** $18.24 $16.47 9.70% 9.5 15.2 60%
Charlotte $18.99 $17.82 6.16% 9.8 14.0 42.86%
New York City $41.30 $39.55 4.24% 9.7 10.2 5.15%
St. Louis $19.59 $18.85 3.78% 7.2 12.9 79.17%
Seattle $23.77 $22.91 3.62% 6.5 14.4 121.54%
*2000 as of fourth quarter.
**2000 as of third quarter
.
Source: CoStar Group Inc.


CONSTRUCTION SLOWDOWN

Office developers have dramatically curtailed building activity over the past few years in light of the soft economy. Most industry observers agree that's a good sign for the long-term health of the sector. But building activity in the apartment sector has slowed only slightly, which could delay a recovery.

NO RESERVATIONS REQUIRED

Only five of the top 25 hotel markets experienced occupancy gains in 2002. Norfolk, Va., home to one of the East Coast's largest naval bases, led the way with a 5% increase in occupancies in 2002 over 2001.

WHERE THE JOBS ARE

Of the 65 metro areas tracked by Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, 25 are showing a slight rise in the employment growth rate. Las Vegas is the clear frontrunner, while San Jose, Calif., has posted the biggest losses.

Percentage change for 12-month period ending December 2002
Top Five Job Growth Markets
1. Las Vegas 3.3%
2. Riverside, Calif. 2.2%
3. Miami 1.8%
3. Greenville, S.C. 1.8%
4. San Diego 1.7%
5. Charlotte, N.C. 1.6%
Bottom Five Job Growth Markets
61. Memphis, Tenn. -1.8%
62. Hartford, Conn. -2.0%
63. San Francisco -2.1%
64. Seattle -2.4%
65. San Jose, Calif. -3.2%
Source: Lend Lease Real Estate Investments


THE UPPER CRUST

Commanding the biggest bucks in America, a small group of households has annual household incomes topping $200,000. Where are they? They cluster in power centers like New York and Washington, D.C., and scenic metros like West Palm Beach, Fla., and Santa Barbara, Calif.

Top 10 metros with income of $200,000 or more
Rank/Metro Number of Households Percent
1. San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, Calif. CMSA 152,989 6.0%
2. Naples, Fla. MSA 5,994 5.8%
3. New York CMSA 366,594 4.7%
4. West Palm Beach MSA 21,898 4.6%
5. Washington, D.C. CMSA 112,181 3.9%
6. Boston CMSA 83,311 3.8%
7. Santa Barbara, Calif. MSA 5,054 3.7%
8. Chicago CMSA 115, 258 3.5%
9. Los Angeles CMSA 180,381 3.4%
10. Atlanta MSA 50,550 3.4%
Note: Statistical ties are due to rounding.
Source: American Demographics analysis of Census 2000 data