Sick? Well? On the road to recovery? The diagnosis is still out on the state of today's commercial real estate market, according to "I'm Not Sick, But I'm Not Well," the latest in a series of timely, informative podcasts produced by John B. Levy & Co.
Sentiment among investors and developers about the outlook for commercial real estate is mixed. On the positive side, the stock market has trended up nearly 10% since April, and along the way, government loan programs have begun to work. But as previous podcasts from John B. Levy & Co. have emphasized, commercial real estate is a lagging indicator. It's unclear whether the market has hit bottom. And even if it has, there are no signs that conditions are improving, even modestly.
"There's no doubt about it. We are in the throes of a violent deleveraging," says John Levy, founder of John B. Levy & Co. "Most of us — and I'm speaking for myself, too — have never seen anything like these current conditions. By the time this is all over, values will have declined some 25% to 40% from their peak."