Northern California, Denver, Indianapolis, Atlanta and several Texas metros top the list of Wachovia Securities’ weakest real estate markets at mid-year. And on a property class basis, the multifamily market is coping with a supply glut that will further slow its recovery.
Capital flows to the apartment sector typically a favored investment type, are also slowing. Meanwhile retail, most popular among capital investors right now and the most stable sector, continues to outperform and is poised, along with hotel, to benefit quickest from the economic recovery.
"Since our April 11, 2003, report, the clouds overhanging the property markets have become slightly grayer and more widespread," says Wachovia CMBS analysts Brian Lancaster, Davis Cable and Kathy Mixon in the report, which was released today.
On the brighter side, Wachovia reports that the hotel market has bottomed out, projecting a RevPAR recovery later on this year or early 2004. The office and industrial sectors will continue to suffer from extensive overcapacity, and these sectors are unlikely to bottom until late next year or early 2005.
Wachovia also projects that the office recovery will be delayed due to slow and late job growth and the current sublease overhang. Southern California and southern Florida, however, remain strong for the most part, along with parts of the greater Washington, D.C., and Baltimore areas.