Older and Wiser

While younger consumers are planning to take advantage of the current low interest rates, the older folks know from experience that we may once again see interest rates at levels similar to those at the end of the 20th century, and they are cutting their debts in preparation.

Identity Theft

Last year, identity thieves made off with $50 billion and consumers reported $400 million in losses from fraud, according to the Federal Trade Commission.

THE BIERI REPORT: TAMPA

TAMPA FOOT TRAFFIC

SHOPPING CENTER RANKING
International Plaza A-/B+
West Shore Plaza B
Countryside Mall B-
Citrus Park Town Center B-/C+
Brandon Town Center B-/C+
Old Hyde Park D
Tyrone Square C
University Mall C-
Gulf View Square C-/D+

Citrus Park Town Center set a new standard for design when it opened with two-story interior fa├žades on many of its stores. Some growth in its primary market, however, is shared with Countryside Mall. International Plaza introduced luxury tenants, Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom, and captured the better consumer from all over town. After an adjustment period, the outdoor setting of the center is finding its way. West Shore Plaza has a tough competitive situation, but it has remodeled and added some key restaurants. Like all of Florida, the Tampa market will continue to grow.

REIT DEMOGRAPHICS

Colonial Property Trust announced last month that it plans to sell six of its 17 malls. The chart below shows average population within a one-, three-, five- and 10-mile radius of the portfolios of Colonial and eight other mall owners. The chart also shows the expected average population growth around each company's mall portfolio.

REIT 2001 Population (k) 2001-2006E Pop. Growth
1 Mi. 3 Mi. 5 Mi. 10 Mi. 1 Mi. 3 Mi. 5 Mi. 10 Mi.
CBL & Associates 4 40 82 173 3.5% 2.1% 8.6% 4.7%
Colonial Property Trust 6-mall portfolio 5 40 65 116 0.1% -0.3% 0.1% 2.2%
General Growth Properties 7 59 137 313 8.3% 0% 1.6% 5.8%
Glimcher Realty Trust 5 59 136 335 6.6% 4.6% 1.4% 3.8%
Macerich Co. 10 72 138 319 6.2% 8.5% 5.3% 6.6%
Mills Corp. 6 56 169 582 7.9% 11.6% 0.7% 19%
Rouse 9 89 231 819 3.9% 6.6% 6.3% 1.4%
Simon 8 62 148 385 -0.4% 4.5% 3.8% 7.7%
Taubman Centers 9 97 210 646 11.4% 4.5% 10.6% 7.8%
REIT Weighted Average 7 61 140 368 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 6.9%
850 non-REIT owners 8 65 145 345 2.3% 3.0% 3.5% 4.3%
Source: ScanUS, Company data, Shopping Center Directory, Morgan Stanley Research

NET LEASES

The net lease market continues to grow in both the number of net lease properties available and the cumulative value of such properties. The Boulder Group maintains that this growth can be directly attributed to the belief that the yield on the 10-Year Treasury will increase. Since the second quarter, both the prime interest rate and the 3-Month LIBOR have risen by 50 and 47 basis points, respectively. These increases have left owners with two main options: either place permanent financing at even higher rates or dispose of the property. Investors appear to be choosing disposition.

Source: The Boulder Group

MEAN CAP RATES

Sector Q3 2004 Q2 Change*
Industrial 8.50% -10
Retail 7.50% 0
Office 8.10% -30
*Change is in basis points