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As real estate investors chase the next big trend, different property types within the market will always experience ebbs and flows in performance. Halfway through 2016, what property types are poised to perform well this year? We asked experts from research firms Situs RERC, Reis Inc., Green Street Advisors and Real Capital Analytics to provide us with their insights.
One thing investors should note about this property type is the rate of rent increases, says Barbara Byrne Denham, an economist at Reis. “Seniors housing is experiencing upward demand, but with this property type, you can’t increase rent as rapidly as you can with multifamily,” she says.
According to Kenneth P. Riggs, chairman and president of Situs RERC, “Non-core investment sectors have attracted strong interest as core property types have been bid up and priced for perfection. More niche properties such as student housing, seniors housing and medical offices are giving the best risk and return profile right now.”
However, investors should keep in mind that even though operating fundamentals in the seniors housing sector are currently healthy, the dynamic may shift in the short-term, notes Andy McCulloch, managing director and head of real estate analytics at Green Street Advisors. “Despite an alluring long-term growth story built on demographics and an aging population, the sector will be tested over the next couple of years as outsized level of new supply gets delivered into the market,” he says.
In the first quarter of 2016, the pre-tax yield for student housing properties was 7.6 percent, according to a report from Situs RERC.
“Student housing operations are generally in line with the long-term trend, and the sector’s defensive attributes have not gone unnoticed by investors (student housing is the best performing sector year-to-date in the REIT space),” says McCulloch. However, a “demographic lull in college-aged students and further acceptance of on-line education pose a threat to lower-tier universities,” he adds.
In addition, although Denham calls student housing a “good market,” the high cost of amenities to satisfy occupiers can put a dent in investor returns.
Industrial properties across the board have been experiencing strong rental growth this year. But the big-box flex warehouse space should remain one of the healthiest industrial sub-sectors, driven by demand for e-commerce tenants. Investors surveyed by Situs RERC gave the flex warehouse property type a 5.7 investment rating (compared to a rating of 6.4 for industrial space in general), which represents its highest rating since mid-2014. Big box warehouses are performing best and will continue to do well, Riggs contends.
“Against a backdrop of healthy demand boosted by e-commerce, market rent growth has been stronger than expected. While new supply and obsolescence are always concerns for industrial, the sector’s future growth prospects look better than past performance would suggest,” McCulloch says.
Investment sales volume in the warehouse space in April came in at $2.5 billion, according to Jim Costello, senior vice president at research firm Real Capital Analytics (RCA).
Reis reported that the average asking rent for flex space was $9.22 per sq. ft. in first quarter 2016, and asking rents grew 1.7 percent year-over-year.
The self-storage sector has seen property price appreciation of 16.0 percent over the past 12 months, and 4.0 percent over the past three months, according to Green Street Advisors.
“Storage continues to become more accepted as an institutional asset class, and operating fundamentals have been phenomenal. Higher cap rates, solid NOI growth and low cap-ex make self-storage a great business,” according to McCulloch.
“Self-storage has done well from an income perspective,” says Riggs.
The neighborhood community center is one of the best investments right now, according to Situs RERC, only beaten in value by industrial warehouses. The firm rated neighborhood community centers as 6.4 out of 10.0.
“Neighborhood community centers, as well as fortress malls, will always be very powerful. They are carrying [the retail] asset class,” says Riggs.
According to RCA’s Costello, the same demographic factors that drove up demand for apartment units in cities have increased demand for necessity retail.
“Strip center tenants are generally healthier than mall tenants today—especially when putting department stores into the mix. While retailer bankruptcies are a continued nuisance in the strip sector, the lack of ground-up development points toward a continued improvement in operating fundamentals,” McCulloch notes.
Urban storefronts continue to be sought after by retail property investors. Analysts are reporting a recent uptick in demand for street retail space.
“In the 2006-2007 period, the urban/storefront market saw average quarterly deal volume of only $1.1 billion. In 2014 and 2015 by contrast, the average was $3.7 billion. Average cap rates were down to 4.9 percent in first quarter 2016. By contrast, retail cap rates overall average 6.6 percent,” Costello says.
McCulloch adds that street retail has been a very hot property type over the past few years, with cap rates in gateway markets such as Manhattan dropping below 3.0 percent. However, “The rent growth required to make some of these recent deals pencil might be unrealistic,” he notes.
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