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Thus far in 2016, commercial brokerages and data firms are reporting the following nationwide statistics for the industrial market.
Rental Rates
CBRE (first quarter 2016): $6.21 per sq. ft.
Cushman & Wakefield (first quarter 2016): $5.44 per sq. ft. weighted asking rent
Vacancy Rate
CBRE (first quarter 2016): 9.2 percent availability
Cushman & Wakefield: (first quarter 2016): 6.1 percent
Net Absorption
CBRE (first quarter 2016): 59.6 million sq. ft.
Cushman & Wakefield: (first quarter 2016): 57.9 million sq. ft.
Completions
CBRE (first quarter 2016): 39.2 million sq. ft.
Cushman & Wakefield (first quarter 2016): 103.4 million sq. ft.
Eric Frankel, of research firm Green Street Advisors, says San Francisco has the “highest combination growth in market rents and occupancy gains for industrial over the last couple of years,” calling it a “scorching performance.”
This market has the lowest availability rate in the nation, at 3.1 percent as of first quarter 2016 and $26.52 weighted asking rent, according to CBRE. Cushman & Wakefield estimates the vacancy at 3.4 percent, with $12.20 weighted asking rent for all property types and net absorption of negative 8,995 sq. ft. Colliers International research notes there was only about 39.4 million sq. ft. in inventory as of fourth quarter 2015, with zero year-to-date new supply. “I still see tremendous amount of demand for infill product” in the Bay Area, notes Greg Matter, vice president with real estate services firm JLL’s global supply chain team. These infill properties may be redeveloped.
California’s Inland Empire benefits from good population growth, relatively affordable land prices and good infrastructure for transporting goods from ports in Los Angeles eastward.
CBRE pegs availability in the market at 7.6 percent, with $5.28 weighted asking rent. Vacancy averaged 5.5 percent in the first quarter of this year, with $5.90 weighted asking rent for all property types and 3.6 million sq. ft. in net absorption, according to Cushman & Wakefield. As of fourth quarter 2015, there was about 462.3 million sq. ft. in inventory, with 4.3 million sq. ft. year-to-date in new supply, according to Colliers International research.
Silicon Valley, a Bay Area market renowned for its tech dominance, is fortified by a robust university infrastructure. This market ranks very high in new patents and environmental health, further boosting its long-term positioning.
Reflecting on the state of the industrial market, Egan says it’s “not normal to see things get this tight.” One example of this trend can be seen in Portland. Here, industrial space availability is at 5.6 percent (it was 7.1 percent a year ago), CBRE estimates. Weighted asking rent is at $5.16 per sq. ft., according to the firm. Cushman & Wakefield figures show 4.8 percent vacancy and $6.85 overall weighted asking rent in this market in the first quarter of 2016, with about 439,415 sq. ft. of net absorption. Colliers International calculates that year-to-date new supply totals about 5.6 million sq. ft.
Availability here is at 6.7 percent and weighted asking rent is at $7.49, according to CBRE. Cushman & Wakefield estimates overall weighted asking rent at $5.85, with 5.8 percent vacancy. The city will likely see negative 100,020 sq. ft. of net absorption. Colliers International estimates new supply at 4.5 million sq. ft. year-to-date.
“Vacancy has tightened and rents have gone up,” Frankel says. How’s this for tight: Cushman & Wakefield projects vacancy for the quarter at 2.7 percent, with overall weighted asking rents at $7.71 per sq. ft. Net absorption this quarter will likely reach 387, 569 sq. ft., the firm’s researchers say. Availability in the first quarter averaged 7.4 percent, according to CBRE, with a $7.29 weighted asking rent. Dispensary growhouses are fueling demand and absorption, as occupiers find older warehouses are perfectly suitable to their needs. There was 220.3 million sq. ft. of inventory as of fourth quarter 2015, with about 1.4 million sq. ft. in new supply year-to-date, according to Colliers International.
As of fourth quarter 2015, Colliers International determined Dallas had 763.1 million sq. ft. of inventory, with about 17.1 million sq. ft. in new supply. Availability in the market averaged 9.7 percent, according to CBRE, with weighted asking rent of $4.33 per sq. ft. Demonstrating still healthy appetite for space, the market will likely experience 6.7 million sq. ft. in net absorption, according to Cushman & Wakefield, which projects a vacancy rate of 6.9 percent vacancy and $5.47 per sq. ft. overall weighted asking rent.
Supply and demand metrics for Phoenix have been steadily improving. This market ought to see good performance in its industrial sector, which contributed 19 percent of total employment numbers for Phoenix recently. Vacancy is slowly dropping and is projected to reach 10.1 percent for 2016, according to Cushman & Wakefield, down a percentage point from a year ago. The firm estimates overall weighted asking rents at $6.26, with 1.3 million sq. ft. in net absorption. Availability is at 12.4 percent and weighted asking rents are at $7.20 per sq. ft., CBRE notes. Phoenix had approximately 288.5 million sq. ft. in inventory in the fourth quarter of 2015, with about 5.3 million sq. ft. in year-to-date new supply, according to Colliers.
Companies servicing supply chain logistics are seeing St. Louis as a great market. New industrial developments are in the works. Inventory figures from Colliers International for fourth quarter 2015 show the city of St. Louis holding approximately 271.3 million sq. ft. of space, with nearly 2.3 million sq. ft. in year-to-date new supply. Rents are also increasing. Availability is at 8.1 percent and weighted asking rent is at $4.14 per sq. ft., CBRE notes. According to Cushman & Wakefield, overall weighted asking rent is $4.07 per sq. ft. and vacancy is 6.9 percent. The firm forecasts 182,257 sq. ft. in net absorption.
The metropolitan area around Kansas City is number four on the list of places where developers are building the most garden-style apartments, relative to the size of the local population, according to CoStar.
The area has suburban sites where developers can build apartments that aren’t too far from the area’s job centers. “The vast majority (91 percent) of garden units are in non-urban submarkets,” says Rybczynski.
Chicago is booming. CBRE estimates industrial availability in the city at 6.6 percent and weighted asking rent at $4.75 per sq. ft. Cushman & Wakefield forecasts vacancy will reach 6.4 percent and overall weighted asking rent $4.87 per sq. ft. The firm notes there will be 3.8 million sq. ft. in net absorption this quarter. Colliers International pins inventory size for Chicago at 1.3 billion sq. ft. as of fourth quarter 2015, with 16.3 million sq. ft. in year-to-date new supply.
“This market has done very well recently, but was late to the e-commerce game,” Frankel notes. John Cushman, executive managing director and leader of Cushman & Wakefield’s logistics and industrial services group for the Americas, calls Chicago one of the “higher velocity markets.”
A strong economy and strong demand for hotel rooms has drawn developers to Miami, where they have 27 new hotel projects under construction. That makes Miami the market with the fourth largest number of new hotel projects underway, after New York, Houston and Dallas, according to STR.
Demand is steady in this market, and though it is has good transportation infrastructure it is facing shortage in new supply and smaller sites. Availability is at 6.6 percent, according to CBRE, and weighted asking rent is at $5.93 per sq. ft. Cushman & Wakefield estimates overall weighted asking rent at $4.96 per sq. ft., with projected vacancy of 6.4 percent. Charlotte had approximately 342 million sq. ft. of inventory in the fourth quarter 2015, with 2.1 million sq. ft. year-to-date in new supply, according to Colliers.
In absolute numbers, the suburban towns of Northern New Jersey are number five on the list of markets where developers are now building the most garden-style apartments, according to CoStar. These densely populated towns are unusual—the cost of development sites in Northern New Jersey is relatively expensive compared to the other top markets for construction.
“Northern New Jersey is also an outlier in that a recently built garden-style unit goes for about the same rent as recently built mid-rise unit,” says Rybczynski. “So, it would seem that Northern New Jerseyians prize the low-density, while being able to commute to New York City.”
Colliers estimates that Central New Jersey, another East Coast industrial market, had 316.9 million sq. ft. in inventory as of fourth quarter2015, with 2.2 million sq. ft. in new supply. Availability here is at 7.1 percent (down from 9.8 percent a year ago), according to CBRE, and weighted asking rent is currently at $5.03 per sq. ft. Vacancy is a tight 5.1 percent, according to Cushman & Wakefield, with overall weighted asking rent of $6.59 per sq. ft.
Investment home sales in Philadelphia rose by 1.6 percent between 2016 and 2017.
