1 5
1 5
An overall value vs. price rating of 4.9 indicates that this quarter, the price of commercial real estate properties outpaced value, albeit minimally. The last time this happened was during the second quarter of 2011, indicating that at this point in the cycle, prices we are seeing are high from a historical perspective.
“We are pretty far into this cycle and pricing is going sideways at this point. The economy is not where some people expected it to be,” says Situs RERC President Kenneth Riggs.
So which property types are still going strong in each region? Here we analyze Situs RERC first quarter figures to determine which property types are delivering the best returns per region.
This quarter, industrial properties saw the highest return vs. risk and value vs. risk ratings in the West, at 5.9 and 5.2, respectively. Both the rate of return and the property’s value outweighed investment risk. In the fourth quarter of 2015, the return rating was unchanged but the value rating was 5.5. Thus industrial property returns stayed the same here, but property values declined. Nevertheless, Situs gave properties in the West the highest “sell” rating.
“In the West, prices generally have been bid up much more on average than in other regions, especially in coastal areas of San Francisco and Seattle and to a lesser degree, Los Angeles,” says Riggs.
The pace of investment in the Midwest accelerated this year. The conditions offered by this region—lower cost of living and often-touted better quality of life—seem a unicorn to most.
Apartment properties had the highest return vs. risk rating in the Midwest, at 6.5 (this was also the highest-rated property in any region for returns). The highest in terms of value vs. price was industrial at 5.2. In the fourth quarter of 2015, these values were 6.1 and 5.1, respectively. Both returns and values for the industrial property type in the Midwest increased quarter-over-quarter.
Omaha, Neb. is currently considered the best tertiary market for investment in office, retail and apartment assets, according to Situs RERC. (Richmond took that spot for industrial). In general, the Midwest had the strongest investment opportunities in tertiary markets: an amalgamation of Omaha, Richmond, Columbus, Oklahoma City and Toledo claim the top three spots in each of the core property types.
“We are starting to see a stronger economic reason to be in the Midwest. Prices there are not pushed so hard and markets there are not flooded with as much investor money, as we saw with the big rushes in Miami, New York City and San Francisco,” Riggs says.
Apartment properties had the highest return vs risk rating in the South, at 6. The highest property type in terms of value vs price was industrial, 5.2. In the fourth quarter of 2015, these values were 6.1 and 5.4, respectively. Return and value ratings declined slightly.
Dallas is rated as the best primary market for investment opportunities in office, retail, industrial and apartment sectors right now. Orlando is the best secondary market for office, retail and apartment properties, with Raleigh, N.C. being the best for industrial.
Situs RERC ranked this region the highest for both buying and holding properties. Why? “Prices are lower on average in the South than in the West and East, and there is strong population growth,” Riggs says. “We are seeing investors going into secondary markets in the South and Midwest.”
This quarter, industrial properties had the highest return vs. risk and value vs. risk ratings in the East, at 5.6 and 5.3, respectively. In the fourth quarter of 2015, these values were 5.9 and 5.1, respectively.
Eastern cities do not rank highly on the list, and instead fall to the bottom 30 percent of spots. (For instance, New York rans as number nine of nine best primary markets for investment in office, industrial and retail properties, but creeps to number seven for apartments.) Generally high property prices (high cost of entry) is one major reason that Eastern markets lag. Investment yields are flatter here than in other regions of the country at this point in the cycle, according to Riggs.
