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One reform that could have a big negative impact on commercial real estate investors is a proposal to tax carried interest as ordinary income rather than as a capital gain. Carried interest structures are common in real estate partnerships and joint ventures and this is getting a lot of attention for good reason. It would significantly increase the tax liability for investors that receive carried interest from a real estate partnership.
Although detailed plans and key appointments are still emerging, Trump has been crystal clear on his intent to ease banking regulations and financial industry reforms. Although both the Dodd-Frank Act and Basel III international banking standards will be targets, it appears as though Dodd-Frank is the bigger priority.
During the campaign, Trump made promises that would have an earthshaking effect on the real estate markets. His pledge to deport millions of undocumented immigrants would empty apartments around the country. A proposed $1 trillion infrastructure program could boost the economy. For now, though, real estate professionals are focused on more mundane proposals already underway in Congress.
Aside from the choice of his economic advisors, what will a Trump presidency mean for the industry that created him? Here are some predictions.
The two nominees have vastly different resumes for their respective positions. Mnuchin has extensive experience in banking, finance and securities. Carson, on the other hand, will face a steep learning curve in getting up to speed on HUD—a massive agency that has an annual budget of more than $48 billion. Although both will first need to secure Senate confirmation, the real estate industry is already speculating on how these two individuals could influence key policies and programs.
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