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Total year-to-date returns as of April 17: +19.2 percent.
Two developments have lifted the stocks of publicly-traded data center REITs:
- More e-commerce activity amid the clampdown on bricks-and-mortar shopping.
- Stepped-up telecommuting and distance learning as a result of widespread stay-at-home orders, triggering more video and data traffic.
Data centers “are providing essential services for an economy that is trying to avoid close contact,” says Calvin Schnure, senior vice president of research and economic analysis at Nareit.
Experts say robustness in the data center REIT sector should continue as consumers embrace online shopping over the long term and as remote working and distance learning gain a stronger foothold. In addition, telemedicine has seen a surge in use as health care providers try to limit in-person visits, propelling interest in long-term deployment of this technology.
Additionally, Forbes points out that WiFi-enabled devices like video doorbells and smart refrigerators, along with autonomous vehicles, are increasing demand for data.
Data centers also benefit from their inherent lack of personal contact, meaning they have been able to stay open during the coronavirus pandemic while high-touch businesses have had to temporarily close, Schnure says.
Data centers “don’t have any face-to-face interaction with customers,” he notes. “It’s not like a restaurant, where people are gathering around a table. It’s not like a movie theater. It’s not like a shopping mall.”
Total year-to-date returns as of April 17: +15.5 percent.
Millions of physically separated Americans have leaned on their cellphones to stay connected with relatives, friends and colleagues during the coronavirus pandemic. In the short term, infrastructure REITs (mainly owners of cell towers) should benefit from most schools being shut down for the rest of this academic year and many people sticking to social distancing guidelines. That should prompt people to keep relying on their cellphones to chat with folks they’re not able to see in person.
Over the long haul, infrastructure REITs should perform well because they’re a key component of the “internet backbone,” responsible for transmitting massive amounts of data, according to Schnure.
Schnure adds that infrastructure REITs wield a low-overhead advantage, namely because cell towers don’t require an on-site workforce.
“A 15 percent return in any year would be good,” he says of infrastructure REITs. “And here you are, three and a half months into the worst year we’ve seen in a long time, and they’ve got twice of what their expected return is.”
Total year-to-date returns as of April 17: -2.1 percent.
Before the coronavirus pandemic, the e-commerce explosion was already boosting industrial REITs. Short-term and long-term growth in e-commerce spurred by coronavirus-stimulated changes in shopping behavior should further benefit industrial REITs, since e-commerce players need space to store and distribute their goods.
The looming permanent closure of thousands of stores across the country also promises to lift industrial REITs, with more shoppers likely to be seeking e-commerce alternatives.
As Barron’s emphasizes, solid demand, limited supply of new properties and steady growth of rental income bode well for industrial REITs. An April 21 report from commercial real estate services company CBRE found that despite coronavirus disruptions, construction of industrial properties was still underway in 16 of the top 20 U.S. markets.
The industrial, data center and infrastructure sectors make up what Schnure calls the “new” new economy in a post-coronavirus environment.
Total year-to-date returns as of April 17: -9.9 percent.
Over the years, the self-storage REIT sector has endured economic slumps. Experts say that should be no different during and after the coronavirus pandemic.
“Self-storage has unique operating characteristics, which historically have made the sector defensive and recession-resilient,” says Geoffrey Dybas, leader of the global real estate securities team at Chicago-based investment manager and adviser Duff & Phelps Investment Management Co. “The sector has high operating margins and solid cash flow growth driven by need-based demand that serves the logistical challenges of people’s life events as well as businesses.”
An April 2020 report from commercial real estate services company Marcus & Millichap notes that the self-storage industry bounced back quickly from the Great Recession. Vacancy rates fell for six consecutive years from their cyclical high of 17.4 percent at the end of 2009.
“A prolonged downturn could weigh on self-storage operations as seen during the early stages of the financial crisis, but a reawakening economy will rebalance demand,” the Marcus & Millichap report notes.
Despite negative total REIT returns so far in 2020, the fundamental self-storage business model “is still quite intact,” Schnure says.
Total year-to-date returns as of April 17: -12.4 percent.
Residential REITs hold an undeniable edge over other REITs: Everybody wants a roof over their head.
“People may be avoiding social contact and you may decide not to go to the mall to buy things, but you do need a place to stay,” Schnure says.
Manufactured homes are an attractive alternative to site-built homes and apartments because they tend to be more affordable, Schnure says. They especially appeal to retirees and vacationers, representing two “stable” groups of occupants, he says.
Total year-to-date returns as of April 17: -15.3 percent.
Single-family home rentals attract people who need a place to live and want more space than an apartment might offer, but don’t want to buy a home.
Single-family homes and other residential sectors have “historically performed relatively well in recessionary environments, as they offer affordable places to live and geographic diversification, and generate predictable levels of cash flow,” Dybas says. “As an economic recovery unfolds, these [REITs] should experience increased cash flow driven by both employment and population growth.”
Phoenix-based SVN | SFRhub Advisors, a brokerage firm specializing in single-family rentals, predicts that ongoing demand for affordable housing will make single-family rentals “an investment portfolio standout.” In mid-April, the firm reported a 650 percent spike in activity on its investment platform for single-family homes since mid-March.
Total year-to-date returns as of April 17: -16.4 percent.
REITs that own apartment buildings are well positioned because of the basic need for shelter, as well as the ability of most tenants to pay rent, experts say. A survey by the National Multifamily Housing Council found that 89 percent of apartment tenants had made full or partial rent payments by April 19 this year, compared with 93 percent in April 2019.
Schnure notes that multifamily REITs tend to own properties catering to higher-income tenants who are on solid financial ground, so these REITs generally aren’t being hit by a slew of missed rent payments. Still, the payment situation could worsen as more Americans lose their jobs, he warns.
“COVID-19’s impact on the multifamily industry is expected to be moderate as demand continues into 2020,” Bend, Ore.-based digital marketing company G5 forecast in a report released on April 22.
