Older and Wiser
While younger consumers are planning to take advantage of the current low interest rates, the older folks know from experience that we may once again see interest rates at levels similar to those at the end of the 20th century, and they are cutting their debts in preparation.
Identity Theft
Last year, identity thieves made off with $50 billion and consumers reported $400 million in losses from fraud, according to the Federal Trade Commission.
THE BIERI REPORT: TAMPA
TAMPA FOOT TRAFFIC
| SHOPPING CENTER | RANKING |
|---|---|
| International Plaza | A-/B+ |
| West Shore Plaza | B |
| Countryside Mall | B- |
| Citrus Park Town Center | B-/C+ |
| Brandon Town Center | B-/C+ |
| Old Hyde Park | D |
| Tyrone Square | C |
| University Mall | C- |
| Gulf View Square | C-/D+ |
Citrus Park Town Center set a new standard for design when it opened with two-story interior façades on many of its stores. Some growth in its primary market, however, is shared with Countryside Mall. International Plaza introduced luxury tenants, Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom, and captured the better consumer from all over town. After an adjustment period, the outdoor setting of the center is finding its way. West Shore Plaza has a tough competitive situation, but it has remodeled and added some key restaurants. Like all of Florida, the Tampa market will continue to grow.
REIT DEMOGRAPHICS
Colonial Property Trust announced last month that it plans to sell six of its 17 malls. The chart below shows average population within a one-, three-, five- and 10-mile radius of the portfolios of Colonial and eight other mall owners. The chart also shows the expected average population growth around each company's mall portfolio.
| REIT | 2001 Population (k) | 2001-2006E Pop. Growth | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mi. | 3 Mi. | 5 Mi. | 10 Mi. | 1 Mi. | 3 Mi. | 5 Mi. | 10 Mi. | |
| CBL & Associates | 4 | 40 | 82 | 173 | 3.5% | 2.1% | 8.6% | 4.7% |
| Colonial Property Trust 6-mall portfolio | 5 | 40 | 65 | 116 | 0.1% | -0.3% | 0.1% | 2.2% |
| General Growth Properties | 7 | 59 | 137 | 313 | 8.3% | 0% | 1.6% | 5.8% |
| Glimcher Realty Trust | 5 | 59 | 136 | 335 | 6.6% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 3.8% |
| Macerich Co. | 10 | 72 | 138 | 319 | 6.2% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% |
| Mills Corp. | 6 | 56 | 169 | 582 | 7.9% | 11.6% | 0.7% | 19% |
| Rouse | 9 | 89 | 231 | 819 | 3.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 1.4% |
| Simon | 8 | 62 | 148 | 385 | -0.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 7.7% |
| Taubman Centers | 9 | 97 | 210 | 646 | 11.4% | 4.5% | 10.6% | 7.8% |
| REIT Weighted Average | 7 | 61 | 140 | 368 | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 6.9% |
| 850 non-REIT owners | 8 | 65 | 145 | 345 | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% |
| Source: ScanUS, Company data, Shopping Center Directory, Morgan Stanley Research | ||||||||
NET LEASES
The net lease market continues to grow in both the number of net lease properties available and the cumulative value of such properties. The Boulder Group maintains that this growth can be directly attributed to the belief that the yield on the 10-Year Treasury will increase. Since the second quarter, both the prime interest rate and the 3-Month LIBOR have risen by 50 and 47 basis points, respectively. These increases have left owners with two main options: either place permanent financing at even higher rates or dispose of the property. Investors appear to be choosing disposition.
Source: The Boulder Group
MEAN CAP RATES
| Sector | Q3 2004 | Q2 Change* |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial | 8.50% | -10 |
| Retail | 7.50% | 0 |
| Office | 8.10% | -30 |
| *Change is in basis points | ||