Miami
“Miami effectively has two regional malls being built in the downtown area at the same time and people are still bullish about investing their money in it,” says Mark Gilbert, executive vice president in the capital markets group at Cushman & Wakefield. Miami-Dade County has approximately 1.45 million sq. ft. of retail space under construction, 35.9 percent of it already spoken for, according to CoStar data from year-end 2014. The retail vacancy rate in the market averages about 3.5 percent, with average quoted rents at $32.11 per sq. ft. But the market’s health is reflected in the pricing as well. Last year, the volume of retail investment sales in Miami totaled almost $1.59 billion, reflecting an increase of 74 percent from the year before, reports RCA. Sales of strip centers in the city closed at an average price of $228 per sq. ft. and an average cap rate of 6.7 percent, compared to the U.S. average of $155 per sq. ft. and 7.3 percent.
Dallas
Gilbert and Drew Fleming, senior director with Cushman & Wakefield’s capital markets group, note that some investors have been scared off from Dallas recently because of the drop in oil prices, but they believe that is likely to be a short-lived blip in the city’s fortunes and may, in fact, create better pricing opportunities. “Worldwide, retailers are focused on expansion in the U.S., and [Texas cities] are the cities they are most interested in,” says Gilbert. Dallas continues to rank among the fastest-growing cities in the country, with Dallas County posting growth of 2.83 percent between 2010 and 2013, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Dallas/Fort Worth area currently has 3.65 million sq. ft. of retail projects in the works, but 92.1 percent of that space has been pre-leased, reports CoStar. At year-end, the market had a vacancy rate of 6.7 percent, with average quoted rents of $14.11 per sq. ft. In 2014, investors paid an average price of $166 per sq. ft. and an average cap rate of 7.7 percent for strip centers in Dallas, according to RCA statistics.
Houston
Houston is the other Texas city that retailers are “most interested in. The city ended 2014 with a vacancy rate more than 100 basis points below Dallas’, at 5.6 percent, and average quoted rents of $15.17 per sq. ft., according to CoStar. There are approximately 2.35 million sq. ft. of new retail going up in Houston, 87 percent of it pre-leased, the research firm estimates. Retail investment sales in the city last year totaled roughly $1.36 billion, a drop of 14 percent from 2013. The average price on strip center acquisitions was $173 per sq. ft., with an average cap rate of 7.6 percent.
2. Las Vegas
Six million people visited Las Vegas in 2017 to attend conventions. That’s a record for the city, which is on track to at least match that number of visitors this year.
That’s one reason developers have 7,400 hotel room under construction in Las Vegas, according to CoStar. That makes it the second busiest city in the country for new development. The two largest new resort hotels under construction total 3,000 rooms.
Atlanta
“We are very bullish on Atlanta and we have the data to back that up,” says Cushman & Wakefield’s Fleming. “Unemployment has dropped dramatically and we are seeing a trend of companies that are located outside the region relocating to the Southeast.” Last year, Forbes ranked Atlanta as the 12th fastest-growing city in the nation, with population growth of 1.27 percent and job growth of 7.07 percent in 2013. The city currently has only 385,058 sq. ft. of retail under construction, with pre-leasing commitments for at least 85.9 percent of the space, according to CoStar. Atlanta’s vacancy rate averages 8.4 percent, while its quoted rents are at $12.47 per sq. ft. Strip centers in the city are relatively affordable, at an average price of $150 per sq. ft. and a cap rate of 6.6 percent. But Atlanta is also attracting plenty of interest—last year, total investment sales volume in its retail real estate went up 27 percent, to $1.9 billion.
Charlotte
Charlotte is becoming more attractive to both investors and retailers because of its healthy population growth and sizeable college cohort—the latest “must have” for retail companies, according to Cushman & Wakefield’s Gilbert. Like Atlanta, it’s made Forbes fastest-growing list, with population growth of 2.3 percent in 2013. The city is home to the University of North Carolina in Charlotte, Charlotte School of Law, Johnson & Wales University and Queens University of Charlotte, among other schools. At year-end, Charlotte’s retail vacancy rate stood at 6.5 percent, reports CoStar, and its quoted rents averaged $13.20 per sq. ft. Developers are currently working on 578,801 sq. ft. of new retail construction in the city, 87.8 percent of which has been pre-leased. Retail investment in the city is going up—last year, sales volume shot up 97 percent, to a little more than $1 billion. But at an average price of $138 per sq. ft. and a cap rate of 7.1 percent, it still looks like a bargain.
Nashville
“Tennessee is very hot right now. Anything that’s traded in Nashville is something that everybody has to have,” says Paul Barile, director of capital markets with Transwestern. Nashville may be best known as the seat of country music, but it’s also home to a number of healthcare companies and has proven attractive to start-ups, according to CNN Money. It also leads the nation in advanced manufacturing, reports the Brookings Institute. At year-end, the retail vacancy rate in the city averaged 6.4 percent, with quoted rents of $14.38 per sq. ft., reports CoStar. In spite of being one of the fastest-growing cities in the nation, Nashville has only 354,106 sq. ft. of new retail in the pipeline, 87.9 percent of it pre-leased. And like Charlotte, it’s still affordable, with prices for strip centers averaging $155 per sq. ft. and an average cap rate of 7.2 percent.
Raleigh/Durham
Part of North Carolina’s Research Triangle, both Raleigh and Durham rank among the nation’s fastest growing metro areas. In the fourth quarter, the cities posted a combined vacancy rate of 5.1 percent, the second lowest on our list, and quoted rents of $14.58 per sq. ft. There is currently 766,962 sq. ft. of new retail construction in the works for the area, 87.3 percent of which has been pre-leased, reports CoStar. In 2014, investment sales volume in the Raleigh/Durham market was moderate, at $626 million, but the figure represented a year-over-year increase of 137 percent, according to RCA. Investors were willing to pay a premium for strip centers in the city, with average pricing at $202 per sq. ft., but the cap rate has stayed at a rather conservative 7.5 percent.