When combined with access to a strong population base, reasonable barriers to entry that keep supply in check and an efficient transportation and infrastructure network, distribution facilities in global gateway ports may present a compelling opportunity.
I’m often asked for an ex-post review of my prognostications. I can’t disagree because, after all, it would be rather disingenuous to provide forecasts without any degree of back testing. So how accurate was I in 2011? Where did I get it wrong? We’ll see below.
Demography is a critical driver of real estate demand. Population growth in the world rapidly accelerated in the 20th century and is still increasing. While the growth may be leveling off in some industrialized countries, it is still robust in most countries.
The U.S. economy expanded less than forecast in the fourth quarter as consumers curbed spending and government agencies cut back. Real GDP climbed 2.8 percent on an annual rate, up from 1.8 percent in the third quarter.
There has been $30.3 billion in new CMBS issuance to date in 2013, according to Commercial Mortgage Alert. That puts the industry on pace to smash last year’s volume of $48.4 billion and will make 2013 the busiest year for CMBS issuance since 2007. Where do you think total CMBS issuance volume will end up in 2013?