Here are the upcoming maturities for CMBS loans:
Now factor in some critical underwriting information for the CMBS loans that will mature between 2015 – 2017 like:
- the loans are mostly interest only which means no amortization will have occurred by maturity,
- the loans were underwritten using proforma lease assumptions that have not turned out to be reality, and
- many are just simply overleveraged.
It seems reasonable to conclude that many of these loans coming up for maturity will not be able to refinance without a significant amount of new capital going into the. And what lending sources will be available to refinance $300 - $400 BILLION in the years 2015 – 2017? I don’t think we KNOW!