GAS PAINS

In mid-July average fuel prices pushed back past $3.00 per gallon and are up 2.0 percent from where they were a year ago. But on the whole, gas prices are up much less year-over-year than during the past two summers.

GAS PRICE TRENDS
2007 Price/Gallon Wk./Wk. % Rolling 4-Wk % Rolling 52-Wk. %
6/25/07 $2.98 -0.9% -7.1% 3.9%
7/2/07 2.96 -0.8 -6.3 0.9
7/9/07 2.98 0.7 -3.1 0.3
7/16/07 3.05 2.3 1.3 2.0
2006
6/26/06 $2.87 -0.1% 0.1% 29.5%
7/3/06 2.93 2.3 1.5 31.8
7/10/06 2.97 1.3 2.3 27.7
7/17/06 2.99 0.5 4.1 29.0
2005
6/27/05 $2.22 2.5% 5.6% 15.3%
7/4/05 2.23 0.5 5.2 17.5
7/10/05 2.33 4.6 9.3 21.4
7/18/05 2.32 -0.5 7.2 20.2
Source: Energy Information Administration, Citigroup Global Markets

ON THE CLOCK

Friedman-Billings Ramsey has 10 retailers on its Watchlist. Two are in bankruptcy protection already while the other eight are not. About half posted rough sales in June.

TROUBLED RETAILERS
Comp-Store Sales Growth (y/y)
Bankruptcy Share of Mall Space Est. Mall Penetration Jun-07 3-Month Average
KB Toys 0.3% 23 N/A N/A
Eddie Bauer 0.4 17 N/A N/A
Comp-Store Sales Growth (y/y)
Negative Watchlist Share of Mall Space Est. Mall Penetration Jun-07 3-Month Average
Express 1.8 64 8.0% 7.0%
Pacific Sunwear 0.7 61 5.7 -1.1
Gap 1.3 49 -9.0 -10.0
Wilson's Leather 0.2 25 -9.4 -18.1
Old Navy 1.6 24 -7.0 -10.0
Bombay Co. 0.2 15 N/A N/A
Shaper Image 0.1 11 -7.0 -8.7
Bon-Ton N/A 3 -18.1 -13.1
Mall Sales Monitor 0.1 0.2
Source: FBR Research & company reports

Department stores mounted a rebound over the Christmas season. But recently sales figures have begun to lag again for some. Luxury chains Saks Fifth Avenue, Nordstrom and Neiman-Marcus have bucked that trend.

Comp-Store Sales Growth (y/y)
Est. Mall Penetration Jun-07 Jun-06 3-Month Average
Sears 64% N/A -6.3% -4.6%
JC Penney 63 -1.5% 4.3 2.6
Macy's 56 -2.7 1.7 3.2
Dillard's 29 -1.0 -1.0 -3.3
Bon-Ton 10 -18.1 6.6 -4.9%
Target 10 3.3 4.8 4.8
Nordstrom 8 0.5 4.7 7.7
Saks Fifth Avenue 3 -5.6 5.3 11.4
Gottschalks 3 -4.3 0.3 -0.8
Neiman-Marcus 3 N/A 7.7 6.3
Depatment Store Sales Monitor 0.1 0.8 0.2
Source: FBR Research & company reports