As the current market cycle gets long in the tooth, the percentage of NREI readers who think we have reached the peak continues to gradually increase. According to our November real estate cycle sentiment survey, 59 percent of respondents believe we are at the peak, vs. 50 percent who felt that way in October and 58 percent in September. The percentage of survey respondents who are no longer sure in which phase of the cycle the industry is in has also increased, to 10 percent in November from 9 percent in October and 7 percent in September.
Fewer survey respondents believe the cycle is in the recovery/expansion phase, at 26 percent vs. 33 percent the month before. Also, only 2 percent believe the cycle is in the recession phase—a decline from 3 percent in October and 4 percent in September.
Another 3 percent of respondents say the commercial real estate industry is experiencing a trough. That’s down from 5 percent in October, but flat with September’s sentiment.
NREI conducts periodic studies of the commercial real estate sector. As part of those surveys, there is always a question on the estimation of the current state of the commercial real estate cycle. A typical NREI survey garners between 200 and 400 respondents. More than half of those respondents are typically owner/partner/president/chairman/CEO or CFO-level executives.